Short Term Trading Advisory September 2015 to October 2015

Stock Market ( India / U.S.A. / Europe / Japan / China )

September 2015 to October 2015
1 ) S & P CNX Nifty India - Support . Sell Below this Support... Target
2 ) Dow Jones 30 U.S.A. - Sell Near ... Stoploss .. Target
3 ) Nasdaq Composite U.S.A. -
4 ) Shanghai China-
5 ) Hang Seng Hong Kong-
6 ) Nikkei Japan-
7 ) FTSE U.K. 100 -
8 ) DAX German 30 -

Commodity (MCX /NCDEX/Comex)

MCX/Comex
- September 2015 to October 2015

1 ) Copper - Sell Copper @ $ Stop Loss $
Target
Sell Below $ ......Target $
All Values are as on www.kitcometals.com

2 ) Crude Oil - Support - $ Sell Below it .

Buy with 2 % StopLoss Or Buy Only Above $ .

Sell Below $ on Friday Closing Target $ .
Then Buy around $ stoploss $. Target to $

3 ) Gold - Trade Between $ (Support) and $ (Resistence)

During Downtrend from -
Sell(Trade) Below..... Support .. Sell Below Closing....
Once Below Target ....Buy around with 1% Stoploss

During Uptrend -
On the Upside Buy Only above $
Target-1 - ..... Target-2 -

Sell Below ( 1% Below Support)

4 ) Silver -
5 ) Nickel -
6 ) Lead -
7 ) Zinc -
8 ) Natural Gas -

NCDEX - September 2015 to October 2015

1 ) Soya Refined -
2 ) Soyabean -
3 ) Chana - Buy Chana(CHARJDDEL-1M) at .... Target .. Stop-loss
4 ) RMSeed -
5 ) Castor Seed -
6 ) Jeera Unjha -
7 ) Cotton Seed Oil Cake -
8 ) Guar Seed -

For Latest Trading Calls , Details and Analysis and Charting Analysis
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Support/Resistence Levels -


Stock Market ( India / U.S.A. / Europe / Japan /
China )

December 2014-January 2015
1 ) S & P CNX Nifty India - Support 8500-8470. Sell Below this Support... Target 8080-8050
2 ) Dow Jones 30 U.S.A. - Sell Near 18,000... Stoploss 18200.. Target 17,150 december
3 ) Nasdaq Composite U.S.A. -
4 ) Shanghai China-
5 ) Hang Seng Hong Kong-
6 ) Nikkei Japan-
7 ) FTSE U.K. 100 -
8 ) DAX German 30 -

Commodity (MCX /NCDEX/Comex)

MCX/Comex
- December 2014-January 2015

1 ) Copper - Sell Copper @ $ 2.8500 Stop Loss $ 3.0300
Target 2.7500 - 2.7400
Sell Below $ 2.7350 ......Target $ 2.6700 - 2.6500
All Values are as on www.kitcometals.com

2 ) Crude Oil - Support - 55-56 $ Sell Below it .

Buy with 2 % StopLoss Or Buy Only Above 57 $ .

Sell Below 55-56 $ on Friday Closing Target 47-48 $ .
Then Buy around 46-45 $ stoploss 44-45 $. Target 53 to 54 $

3 ) Gold - Trade Between 1150-1155 $ (Support) and 1185-1195 $ (Resistence)

During Downtrend from 1265 -
Sell(Trade) Below 1215...... Support 1205-1195 .. Sell Below 1195 Closing....
Once Below 1195.. Target 1155-1150....Buy around 1150 with 1% Stoploss

During Uptrend -
On the Upside Buy Only above 1200-1205 $
Target-1 - 1225...... Target-2 - 1265

Sell Below 1145-1150 ( 1% Below Support)

4 ) Silver -
5 ) Nickel -
6 ) Lead -
7 ) Zinc -
8 ) Natural Gas -

NCDEX - December 2014-January 2015

1 ) Soya Refined -
2 ) Soyabean -
3 ) Chana - Buy Chana(CHARJDDEL-1M) at 3000-3050.... Target 3300-3325.. Stop-loss 2980-2950
4 ) RMSeed -
5 ) Castor Seed -
6 ) Jeera Unjha -
7 ) Cotton Seed Oil Cake -
8 ) Guar Seed -

For Latest Trading Calls , Details and Analysis and Charting Analysis Subscribe to Daily Trading Link in Contents/Index

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

UBS sees Nifty at 9,600 by 2015-end

Nifty could slip to 7,500 if their expectations of the earnings growth recovery are not met, UBS says. Bharti Airtel, HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries, ONGC among top picks

Global research and brokerage firm, UBS, expects the to touch 9,600 by 2015-end, a rise of around 15% from the current levels. The up move, believes, will be led by an improvement in corporate earnings and an improvement in the overall economy.

In a 11 November report titled ‘India Market Strategy Outlook 2015 – to continue’, authors and suggest that the economic growth recovery underway will likely sustain current valuations, especially as it starts manifesting in both macro (economic growth, inflation) and micro (corporate earnings) data points.

“Based on our top-down 15%/18% growth forecasts for FY16/FY17 and likely premium valuations of around 16x one-year forward PE, our for end-2015 is 9,600,” the report says.

However, if their expectations of the earnings growth recovery are not met (with only 10-12% growth in corporate earnings), and the market de-rates towards 14x one-year forward PE (price-to-earnings), the Nifty could decline to 7,500 levels.

Unlike the last three years, they expect the consensus earnings growth estimates of 15% plus for FY16 and FY17 to be met, and ultimately, it is earnings momentum that drives markets.

In the near term, however, UBS suggests that the markets could start looking for tangible indicators such as earnings or macro parameters, beyond merely headlines of hope from future reforms. Though still relevant, the impact of positive headlines may gradually diminish. On the flip side, a lack of headlines or a delay in expected reform deadlines may be taken negatively by the markets, as was seen recently when the government delayed its decisions on coal / gas.

and reforms

Supported by both macro (fiscal/monetary) and micro (food/wages) policies, UBS expects consumer price inflation (CPI) to moderate to 5.7% in January 2016, lower than the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) target of 6%.

“We expect monetary policy to lag inflation moderation and the to keep policies relatively tight until FY16. 10-year and short-term market interest rates should react much earlier and more sharply,” the report says.

UBS expects more policy action in 2015, including further progress on India's '3 arrows'—Aadhaar unique identification numbers, GST tax reform (a possible game changer) and dedicated freight / industrial corridors.

Besides, reforms related to liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)/urea, state-owned (SOE) banks, coal/power and land are also likely. According to the report, Brent crude sustaining at $85 per barrel could mean a $20bn bounty for India (1% of GDP), all other things being equal.

Top picks

UBS remains overweight (OW) Banks (private/SOE), Oil and Gas, Power, Telecom and Media sectors; underweight (UW) Autos (two-wheelers) and Consumer Staples. It has maintained a neutral stance on the four–wheeler (4W) and Cement sectors.

Meanwhile, it has downgraded small- and mid-caps to “neutral” from “overweight” stance and cut IT services to “underweight” from “neutral” besides turning neutral on Consumer Discretionary and Pharmaceuticals sectors (from UW).

Their most preferred stocks are Asian Paints, Bharti Airtel, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, LIC Housing Finance, Maruti Suzuki India, Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX), Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), Power Grid, and Reliance Industries.

“We least prefer Adani Power, Cipla, Hero MotoCorp, Hindustan Unilever, Infosys, Jubilant FoodWorks, and United Spirits,” adds the report.

Stock Market Outlook - Monday , 01-Dec-14


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UBS sees Nifty at 9,600 by 2015-end

Nifty could slip to 7,500 if their expectations of the earnings growth recovery are not met, UBS says. Bharti Airtel, HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries, ONGC among top picks


Global research and brokerage firm, UBS, expects the to touch 9,600 by 2015-end, a rise of around 15% from the current levels. The up move, believes, will be led by an improvement in corporate earnings and an improvement in the overall economy.

In a 11 November report titled ‘India Market Strategy Outlook 2015 – to continue’, authors and suggest that the economic growth recovery underway will likely sustain current valuations, especially as it starts manifesting in both macro (economic growth, inflation) and micro (corporate earnings) data points.

“Based on our top-down 15%/18% growth forecasts for FY16/FY17 and likely premium valuations of around 16x one-year forward PE, our for end-2015 is 9,600,” the report says.

However, if their expectations of the earnings growth recovery are not met (with only 10-12% growth in corporate earnings), and the market de-rates towards 14x one-year forward PE (price-to-earnings), the Nifty could decline to 7,500 levels.

Unlike the last three years, they expect the consensus earnings growth estimates of 15% plus for FY16 and FY17 to be met, and ultimately, it is earnings momentum that drives markets.

In the near term, however, UBS suggests that the markets could start looking for tangible indicators such as earnings or macro parameters, beyond merely headlines of hope from future reforms. Though still relevant, the impact of positive headlines may gradually diminish. On the flip side, a lack of headlines or a delay in expected reform deadlines may be taken negatively by the markets, as was seen recently when the government delayed its decisions on coal / gas.

and reforms

Supported by both macro (fiscal/monetary) and micro (food/wages) policies, UBS expects consumer price inflation (CPI) to moderate to 5.7% in January 2016, lower than the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) target of 6%.

“We expect monetary policy to lag inflation moderation and the to keep policies relatively tight until FY16. 10-year and short-term market interest rates should react much earlier and more sharply,” the report says.

UBS expects more policy action in 2015, including further progress on India's '3 arrows'—Aadhaar unique identification numbers, GST tax reform (a possible game changer) and dedicated freight / industrial corridors.

Besides, reforms related to liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)/urea, state-owned (SOE) banks, coal/power and land are also likely. According to the report, Brent crude sustaining at $85 per barrel could mean a $20bn bounty for India (1% of GDP), all other things being equal.

Top picks

UBS remains overweight (OW) Banks (private/SOE), Oil and Gas, Power, Telecom and Media sectors; underweight (UW) Autos (two-wheelers) and Consumer Staples. It has maintained a neutral stance on the four–wheeler (4W) and Cement sectors.

Meanwhile, it has downgraded small- and mid-caps to “neutral” from “overweight” stance and cut IT services to “underweight” from “neutral” besides turning neutral on Consumer Discretionary and Pharmaceuticals sectors (from UW).

Their most preferred stocks are Asian Paints, Bharti Airtel, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, LIC Housing Finance, Maruti Suzuki India, Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX), Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), Power Grid, and Reliance Industries.

“We least prefer Adani Power, Cipla, Hero MotoCorp, Hindustan Unilever, Infosys, Jubilant FoodWorks, and United Spirits,” adds the report.

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Disclaimer :-

Opinion expressed is our current opinion as of the date appearing on this webpage only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis ,the information discussed in this webpage, there may be reasons that prevent us from doing so.

Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.
The information in this Webpage has been published on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true and are for general guidance only. While every effort is made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of information contained ; We , at I.R.C. , takes no guarantee and assumes no liability for any errors or omissions of the information. No one can use the information as the basis for any claim, demand or cause of action.

We Believe that :-

Commodity Futures are very Volatile and Subjected to Market Risk Globally .
Stay Alert to Global Financial News and Events .........Take Care...
Trade Only If You Understand the Risk Involved !!
Use Your Stop Losses Carefully.....!!
Remember That ..
" Hope Comes before Pray "
" Before Hope Comes Stop Loss "
Take Care... Best Wishes...for Successful Trades..Happy Trading...!!

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KOTA, RAJASTHAN, India
Technical Analyst, Stock Market and Commodity Futures , BSE , NSE , MCX & NCDEX Technical and Fundamental Research